QUESTION: Is it possible to "plead guilty" into a regulatory fiction? In other words -- subject yourself to a regulatory regime that has no basis -- or authorization -- in statute or law? Is it possible for a regulatory agency to CLAIM jurisdiction where none should apply? And then assign fines and penalties to your activities? To paraphrase a common phrase: "Regulation without representation?"
ANSWER: If recent events are any indicator -- the short answer is "Yes" -- Regulatory agencies can claim jurisdiction -- and demand "compliance" -- where none should apply. And if this regulatory over-reach is not challenged -- will remain in effect -- and propagate to gain future credibility.
SIGNIFICANT or NO? While the example below may seem "small" and "trivial" to trillion dollar economies -- rest assured -- where there is a little regulatory smoke -- there is hidden inferno of burning liberty and freedom.
A Legal Disease infects the "Regulatory System?" -- In the realm of statutory "law" that is supposed to be superior to -- and over-rides any regulation -- there is a disease called "Pleading into a Fiction of Law." Simply put -- you -- a free and liberty born citizen -- may voluntarily confess to breaking a law -- a law that does not exist -- and with the willing participation of a court of "competent" jurisdiction -- your plea can be "solidified" into a "real crime" -- with real consequences, real fines and real penalties.
DISEASE of the PARENT Afflicts the Child: This disease of the statutory legal system is inherited by the legal system's child: The "regulatory compliance" system.
REGULATORY FICTION SETUP:
2012-2015 history -- Regulatory "Hands Off" from Congress: In 2012 -- the US Congress passed something called the "FAA Modernization and Reform Act" (FMRA, Public Law 112-095, See [1] and [2]). For our current example, the significant and relevant text is section 336 -- which is very specific -- regarding hobby and model aircraft owners and operators:
Section 336(a): " ... the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration may not promulgate any rule or regulation regarding a model aircraft, or an aircraft being developed as a model aircraft ..."
Please note the key text -- "may not promulgate." This is a specific Congressional prohibition ("hands off") -- to the FAA -- a specific directive NOT to develop regulations -- and push those regulations onto the public ("promulgate"). Subsequent sections of the FMRA statutory legislation go on to describe how model aircraft will be operated as per "guidelines" of "community based" organizations. This is where the 2012 FMRA strongly hints at "self regulation" for model aircraft owners and operators under 55 pounds -- and flying away from full sized aircraft and airports.
REGULATORY OVER-REACH: In direct contradiction to US Congressional intent -- beginning in 2014 and ending 21-Dec-2015 -- the FAA developed and foisted ("promulgated") rules and regulations upon the US public -- and specifically upon the model aircraft and UAV ("drone") community. The FAA promoted this new regulation as a "fact" of FAA jurisdiction and purview. Promoting a legal fiction.
"Regulated Community" Reaction -- Delay self ensnarement into a regulatory fiction? The Academy of Model Aeronautics (AMA) -- one of the key self regulated communities -- on or about 17-Dec-2016 -- encouraged it's members to hold off -- and wait for redress of interpretive grievances -- and to be heard and re-considered by the FAA. Basically -- the AMA was cautioning the membership to avoid self-ensnarement into the FAA regulatory fiction. And the AMA was hoping to add "weight" -- via the membership -- to boycott or ignore FAA claims of purview. A regulatory fiction ignored -- and un-enforced -- will be eventually be recognized as regulatory "vaporware" -- at least this appeared to be the hoped for outcome for a few weeks in Dec-2015 and Jan-2016.
Lawsuit and Stay Petition: On 24-Dec-2015 -- some three days after the FAA "enacted" the new rules and regulations -- a Mr John Taylor of Maryland filed a lawsuit against the FAA's Regulatory Over Reach and filed a motion to freeze the FAA registration process --and block registration of model aircraft and UAV-drones sold during Christmas 2015. Mr Taylor's motion to freeze registration was denied by the federal district court (self ensnarement was "allowed" to continue) -- yet the lawsuit regarding regulatory over reach was allowed to proceed (the FAA rules and regulations may yet be killed by court process). As of Feb-2016 -- Mr Taylor's lawsuit remains open.
WEB SITE ENSNAREMENT & SELF CONFESSIONAL? The FAA also setup and provisioned a web site for self reporting -- a place to "confess" that you owned a model aircraft -- and might -- just might -- violate FAA rules and regulations -- rules and regs with no foundation in legal statute. Thus automating -- via a government website -- the process of "pleading into a fiction of regulation." And -- in essence -- also giving the "regulatory requirement" the imprimatur of an official US Government website.
To add to the scare -- and to "encourage" use of the website -- the FAA also warned that failure to register your model aircraft by 19-Feb-2016 -- owners and operators of model aircraft could face fines up to $250,000 -- and three years in jail.
STATUS? Where are we? As of 06-Jan-2016 -- some 181,000 folks have been ensnared -- and have used the FAA web site to "plead into a fiction" of regulatory purview and "compliance." And have paid $5 each for the "privilege" to do so. Mr Taylor's lawsuit against the FAA -- successful or not -- and the FAA's "abuse" of US Congressional FMRA intent -- means that some 150,000+ folks are now a "regulated community" -- regulated by a "fiction" -- generated by what appears to be a self-serving US Government agency.
UPSHOT? Bigger perspective for anyone in a "regulated community" -- struggling thru "compliance" with ATF / BIA / EPA / FCC / OSHA / SEC / etc ?? You too might be living a "regulated fiction" -- filing permits -- and reacting to rules and regulations -- with the weight and effect of "laws" -- that only exist in the interpretive over reach of your regulatory agencies. Regulatory perception (fiction) is by default legal reality?
To paraphrase a great author, "All things be ready" (for the regulatory agency) -- "if our minds be so." (if we believe the regulatory fiction is fact).
Refs:
[1] FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 (Summary):
https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/house-bill/658
[2] Full Text Version:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr658/text
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
About this Blog
Societies and the Cultural Zeitgeist can seem large and complex -- and impossible to fathom -- and digest.
However there are "thinking tools" and diagnostic "debugging" approaches that can help.
In the deep dark past, this author was heavy duty scientific data miner, developer and debugger of instrumentation and analysis software. Slowly, various parallels regarding how large software systems behaved -- or not -- began to "look like" various patterns in society and culture. Diagnostic and epistemological tools learned from scientific data analysis have been reformulated -- to "vet" and "zen" some of the social patterns and zeitgeist events -- for alternate and unique "understandings."
This may sound very odd and a significant stretch. Please rest assured, the mental journey will be smoothed by simple diagnostic approaches and backed up with concrete examples. Please stay tuned.
However there are "thinking tools" and diagnostic "debugging" approaches that can help.
In the deep dark past, this author was heavy duty scientific data miner, developer and debugger of instrumentation and analysis software. Slowly, various parallels regarding how large software systems behaved -- or not -- began to "look like" various patterns in society and culture. Diagnostic and epistemological tools learned from scientific data analysis have been reformulated -- to "vet" and "zen" some of the social patterns and zeitgeist events -- for alternate and unique "understandings."
This may sound very odd and a significant stretch. Please rest assured, the mental journey will be smoothed by simple diagnostic approaches and backed up with concrete examples. Please stay tuned.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Back-Folding 20th Century Lessons on 18th Century?
In forensic sciences -- including anthropology, archaeology, epidemiology, etc -- tools and techniques of today are applied to the past to extract new information, perspectives and understandings. PBS uses this "fold-back" with some entertaining success in the Secrets of the Dead TV series.
This also can apply to political & social epistemology -- how we know what we think we know -- about how people behaved -- and thought -- in the past.
In the introduction and chapter one of Jonah Goldberg's 2009 book:
The author "back-folds" various modern "understandings" and lessons from the political trajectories of Mussolini and Hitler onto the 1789-1799 French Revolution. This fold-back is accomplished a little like a modern epidemiologist might use a gas chromatograph and/or a mass spec to "sniff" old ancient bones or clothing to extract new perspectives.
Using this "back-fold" technique -- Mr Goldberg's book makes some surprising -- and convincing -- historical arguments that:
(a) The late 1700s and early 1800s French Revolution created the world's first "modern" Fascist regime. This is not at all clear from other historical perspectives. J.Goldberg "back-folds" attributes and political parallels of Benito Mussolini and Hitler onto the French Revolution -- and develops an interesting comparison and persuasive narrative. And like an epidemiologist, Mr Goldberg compares the social & political disease of the French Revolution -- and how this disease evolved & propagated forward in time to become the social & political diseases of Mussolini fascism and Nazi national socialism.
(b) Shocking and surprising? J.Goldberg also make another interesting case: The 1890s to 1930s "Progressives" -- Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson and FDR being the tips of the iceberg -- essentially imposed an 1870s German "Bismarckian" style regulatory-administrative "fascism" upon America -- and the "echos" of this "fascism" rings forward to our current day via the regulatory estate and plantation -- a regulatory "structure" imported from 1870s German academic "social engineering."
The key mystery? Why did imported Bismarckian "fascism" not infect and afflict America the same way fascism infected and afflicted Italy or German? Did WW2 intervened before the disease reached full bloom in America? And the evils observed by veterans help the promoters of American fascism recoil in horror -- and reconsider their ways?
J.Goldberg explains that our "understanding" of fascism is too colored by the Hitler and Mussolini examples -- that fascism is a much more subtle infection of the body politic -- and like tuberculosis -- can take years to decades to fully sicken -- and kill the host country's civil society.
Recall that tuberculosis can take months to decades to kill a human hosts. Tuberculin fascism appears to operate upon the body politic in similar timelines.
Some countries succumb to tuberculin fascism rather quickly -- in just a few years. Some take require decades. And like humans, the difference seems to be the strength of immune system.
For the body politic -- the immune system that seems to thwart and resist the growth of tuberculin fascism are a well developed set of morals and religious traditions -- traditions that give individuals some sense of "worth" and "self" -- and a one-to-one relationship with an omniscience or divine.
Evidence? Action speak loud. All the big "-ism" -- Socialism, Communism, Progressivism, Nazism, Mussolini style Fascism -- all of these (and more) attempt to replace an abstract "God" in heaven with the tangible "god" of the state. Each of the big "-isms" attempt to intervene between the individual and the tradition divine -- and "command" the religious "worship" of the individual. Drawing away the faithful by deceit -- or by force -- or worse.
The French Revolution attempted to draw folks away from their faith in a very heavy handed and coarse manner -- going so far as to kill priest outright as "enemies of the state" and destroy churches. J. Goldberg indirectly seems to make the case that all of the big "-isms" are becoming more skilled and sophisticated at drawing away the faithful -- and to use the language of the bible -- to worship the false prophet of the state.
In spite of the human disasters of the French Revolution, Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, the Statists continue to try their hand at becoming "God on earth" -- making "real" what was abstract in traditional Judeo-Christian traditions.
UPSHOT? BigGov is a jealous and petty god. It maybe that an abstract God -- and individual faith in an abstract God -- is necessary to keep the body politic from developing a full blow case of tuberculin fascism. There is something about making "God" tangible in the form of Big Government, that dives a country to self-destruction. Not clear what -- yet history is full of examples.
As the Bard said almost 400 years ago: "All things be ready, if our minds be so."
This also can apply to political & social epistemology -- how we know what we think we know -- about how people behaved -- and thought -- in the past.
In the introduction and chapter one of Jonah Goldberg's 2009 book:
2009 Book (Wiki Details)
Using this "back-fold" technique -- Mr Goldberg's book makes some surprising -- and convincing -- historical arguments that:
(a) The late 1700s and early 1800s French Revolution created the world's first "modern" Fascist regime. This is not at all clear from other historical perspectives. J.Goldberg "back-folds" attributes and political parallels of Benito Mussolini and Hitler onto the French Revolution -- and develops an interesting comparison and persuasive narrative. And like an epidemiologist, Mr Goldberg compares the social & political disease of the French Revolution -- and how this disease evolved & propagated forward in time to become the social & political diseases of Mussolini fascism and Nazi national socialism.
(b) Shocking and surprising? J.Goldberg also make another interesting case: The 1890s to 1930s "Progressives" -- Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson and FDR being the tips of the iceberg -- essentially imposed an 1870s German "Bismarckian" style regulatory-administrative "fascism" upon America -- and the "echos" of this "fascism" rings forward to our current day via the regulatory estate and plantation -- a regulatory "structure" imported from 1870s German academic "social engineering."
The key mystery? Why did imported Bismarckian "fascism" not infect and afflict America the same way fascism infected and afflicted Italy or German? Did WW2 intervened before the disease reached full bloom in America? And the evils observed by veterans help the promoters of American fascism recoil in horror -- and reconsider their ways?
J.Goldberg explains that our "understanding" of fascism is too colored by the Hitler and Mussolini examples -- that fascism is a much more subtle infection of the body politic -- and like tuberculosis -- can take years to decades to fully sicken -- and kill the host country's civil society.
Recall that tuberculosis can take months to decades to kill a human hosts. Tuberculin fascism appears to operate upon the body politic in similar timelines.
Some countries succumb to tuberculin fascism rather quickly -- in just a few years. Some take require decades. And like humans, the difference seems to be the strength of immune system.
For the body politic -- the immune system that seems to thwart and resist the growth of tuberculin fascism are a well developed set of morals and religious traditions -- traditions that give individuals some sense of "worth" and "self" -- and a one-to-one relationship with an omniscience or divine.
Evidence? Action speak loud. All the big "-ism" -- Socialism, Communism, Progressivism, Nazism, Mussolini style Fascism -- all of these (and more) attempt to replace an abstract "God" in heaven with the tangible "god" of the state. Each of the big "-isms" attempt to intervene between the individual and the tradition divine -- and "command" the religious "worship" of the individual. Drawing away the faithful by deceit -- or by force -- or worse.
The French Revolution attempted to draw folks away from their faith in a very heavy handed and coarse manner -- going so far as to kill priest outright as "enemies of the state" and destroy churches. J. Goldberg indirectly seems to make the case that all of the big "-isms" are becoming more skilled and sophisticated at drawing away the faithful -- and to use the language of the bible -- to worship the false prophet of the state.
In spite of the human disasters of the French Revolution, Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, the Statists continue to try their hand at becoming "God on earth" -- making "real" what was abstract in traditional Judeo-Christian traditions.
UPSHOT? BigGov is a jealous and petty god. It maybe that an abstract God -- and individual faith in an abstract God -- is necessary to keep the body politic from developing a full blow case of tuberculin fascism. There is something about making "God" tangible in the form of Big Government, that dives a country to self-destruction. Not clear what -- yet history is full of examples.
As the Bard said almost 400 years ago: "All things be ready, if our minds be so."
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Intelligentsia, Creativity & the Evangelical Impulse
A tangent thought as we examine the "hive mind" and motivations of the Regulatory estate and plantation -- and the Intelligentsia's need to "social engineer" the society around them with new and novel ideologies. Presumably the Intelligentsia' motivations are driven by "good intentions" -- yet a democide history of the 20th century is much less sanguine and less forgiving.
KEY QUESTION: From where does this incessant need to create new ideologies -- and effect social re-engineering -- originate? Especially via "Big Picture" programs -- and smaller aspects via the regulatory estate?
On possible explanation -- and discussed by an old Communist uncle -- is the alternate filling of the human brain's "god hole" (lower case "god" here, means any deity will do). Filing this "god hole" with alternate ideologies can be a source of intellectual creativity -- and mischief.
Some alternate history: Implied in the first two chapters of this 2009 book:
The European intelligentsia became:
(a) Bored and tired of God, the Western Judeo-Christian traditions and the Catholic church -- sometime before -- and certainly during and after the French Revolution. After the French Revolution -- every intellectual of any stripe felt a need to create -- and to create a new vision for society around them -- fixing, tuning, adjusting and destroying any real or perceived ill and inefficiency of human societies and the human condition. And often without regard to cost or consequences. The intellectual parade is almost endless: Robespierre, Engels, Marx, Lenin, Mussolini, Gramsci, Lukacs, etc.
(b) Idea producers, coupled with the printing press. An intellectual is not an intellectual unless they produce and publish a stream of ideas (publish or perish) -- sometimes small technical shavings off old ideas into smaller new ideas. And sometimes -- to be the primo explorer -- the Big Bwana of ideas -- the intellectual must question whole sweeps of human history, tradition and culture. Questioning is not the problem. The real problems begin with specific social re-engineering that is based on wishful thinking and Utopian dreams -- and not real experience humans and their natures.
Since the 16th and 17th century -- and especially after the late 18th century French Revolution -- Europeans have boiled over with new ideologies -- new, radical "isms" -- for over-turning and socially re-engineering Western traditions. One perspective and epistemological trek is in Linda Kimball's 2007 discussion from the American Thinker.
Many of these radical "-isms" have been -- or are being imported -- into the American experience. The regulatory estate and plantation is no exception -- having been drawn from Bismarckian tenets for "good government."
The upshot is -- during the 20th century -- a parade of European "-isms" and political movements -- which captured the power of the state -- often with religious zeal -- re-engineered many European countries -- often with catastrophic results.
An American Immune Twist?
America has produced it fair share of intellectuals cranking out ideologies of every stripe -- radical and otherwise -- however the popular need for absorption of these new ideologies has been different. Why? How? Perhaps what I call the "Evangelical Relief Valve" and "Smarter Shopping" of ideas.
Consider -- the core European experience for the past 2000 years has been more-or-less Church and State speaking as one. Even today -- in some countries -- and this is almost impossible for Americans to understand -- the local church is so tightly coupled to the local state, the church "shares" in the tax revenue -- tax revenue collected with all the police powers of the state. To an American way of thinking -- this coupling of church and state can only generate annoyance and resentment -- especially if your personal belief system differs from the official orthodoxy.
In America this annoyance and resentment is explicitly allowed to vent -- and be explored -- via the US Constitution's first amendment and religious freedom. Anyone in American -- at any time -- can create a new ideology -- religious or not -- and begin promotion and "sales" of the idea. This was true even before the American revolution -- and this has contributed to two American twists:
(1) Any frustrated intellectual and/or self appointed social re-engineering "expert" can write a book -- yell from a street soap-box -- run a radio or TV show -- start a church, etc -- go on an Evangelical and advertising bender -- and vent his or her viewpoint to the world -- and "test" the population's sympathy -- and potential "buy in" of the intellectual's "great new idea."
(2) Because so many of these ideological ventings are manifest in America -- the American population is drowned in ideas & ideologies (especially commercial ads). This produces an accidental degree of mental "hardening" and ad hoc "smarter shopping" of new ideas and ideologies. This is often expressed via the satirical aphorism "Opinions [ideas] are like assholes, everybody has one."
SUMMARY: Will the American Evangelical relief valve continue to "protect" America from the radical "isms" of the 20th century European experience?
Hard to predict -- as regulatory and judicial systems appear to be doing and "end-run" of this evangelical relief valve: The Regulatory Estate and Judicial circles are rife with social re-engineering ideologies -- big and small -- that masquerade under such "good sounding" and "politically correct" labels as "good for the environment" -- "protecting health" -- "promoting safety" -- "helping the poor" -- "for the children" -- etc.
And more and more -- each of these good sounding "intentions" are backed by police powers of the US Federal government -- and many state and local jurisdictions. As recent examples such as the Oregon baker's fine or the case of Kim Davis for failure to issue a marriage license have shown. These cases manifest a much larger trend of using the regulatory and judicial powers of the state to overcome any and all religious liberty -- and plug up the evangelical relief valve.
The open question becomes: Will the regulatory estate become the new theocracy in America? With regulators and judges as the new priesthood? Are we there, yet? Seems corruption and evils of the Ancien Régime -- so detested during the French Revolution -- are being rebuilt -- in America -- via the Regulatory plantation -- and yet to be defined estates of the realm.
KEY QUESTION: From where does this incessant need to create new ideologies -- and effect social re-engineering -- originate? Especially via "Big Picture" programs -- and smaller aspects via the regulatory estate?
On possible explanation -- and discussed by an old Communist uncle -- is the alternate filling of the human brain's "god hole" (lower case "god" here, means any deity will do). Filing this "god hole" with alternate ideologies can be a source of intellectual creativity -- and mischief.
Some alternate history: Implied in the first two chapters of this 2009 book:
Book: "Liberal Fascism" by J. Goldberg
The European intelligentsia became:
(a) Bored and tired of God, the Western Judeo-Christian traditions and the Catholic church -- sometime before -- and certainly during and after the French Revolution. After the French Revolution -- every intellectual of any stripe felt a need to create -- and to create a new vision for society around them -- fixing, tuning, adjusting and destroying any real or perceived ill and inefficiency of human societies and the human condition. And often without regard to cost or consequences. The intellectual parade is almost endless: Robespierre, Engels, Marx, Lenin, Mussolini, Gramsci, Lukacs, etc.
(b) Idea producers, coupled with the printing press. An intellectual is not an intellectual unless they produce and publish a stream of ideas (publish or perish) -- sometimes small technical shavings off old ideas into smaller new ideas. And sometimes -- to be the primo explorer -- the Big Bwana of ideas -- the intellectual must question whole sweeps of human history, tradition and culture. Questioning is not the problem. The real problems begin with specific social re-engineering that is based on wishful thinking and Utopian dreams -- and not real experience humans and their natures.
Since the 16th and 17th century -- and especially after the late 18th century French Revolution -- Europeans have boiled over with new ideologies -- new, radical "isms" -- for over-turning and socially re-engineering Western traditions. One perspective and epistemological trek is in Linda Kimball's 2007 discussion from the American Thinker.
Many of these radical "-isms" have been -- or are being imported -- into the American experience. The regulatory estate and plantation is no exception -- having been drawn from Bismarckian tenets for "good government."
The upshot is -- during the 20th century -- a parade of European "-isms" and political movements -- which captured the power of the state -- often with religious zeal -- re-engineered many European countries -- often with catastrophic results.
An American Immune Twist?
America has produced it fair share of intellectuals cranking out ideologies of every stripe -- radical and otherwise -- however the popular need for absorption of these new ideologies has been different. Why? How? Perhaps what I call the "Evangelical Relief Valve" and "Smarter Shopping" of ideas.
Consider -- the core European experience for the past 2000 years has been more-or-less Church and State speaking as one. Even today -- in some countries -- and this is almost impossible for Americans to understand -- the local church is so tightly coupled to the local state, the church "shares" in the tax revenue -- tax revenue collected with all the police powers of the state. To an American way of thinking -- this coupling of church and state can only generate annoyance and resentment -- especially if your personal belief system differs from the official orthodoxy.
In America this annoyance and resentment is explicitly allowed to vent -- and be explored -- via the US Constitution's first amendment and religious freedom. Anyone in American -- at any time -- can create a new ideology -- religious or not -- and begin promotion and "sales" of the idea. This was true even before the American revolution -- and this has contributed to two American twists:
(1) Any frustrated intellectual and/or self appointed social re-engineering "expert" can write a book -- yell from a street soap-box -- run a radio or TV show -- start a church, etc -- go on an Evangelical and advertising bender -- and vent his or her viewpoint to the world -- and "test" the population's sympathy -- and potential "buy in" of the intellectual's "great new idea."
(2) Because so many of these ideological ventings are manifest in America -- the American population is drowned in ideas & ideologies (especially commercial ads). This produces an accidental degree of mental "hardening" and ad hoc "smarter shopping" of new ideas and ideologies. This is often expressed via the satirical aphorism "Opinions [ideas] are like assholes, everybody has one."
SUMMARY: Will the American Evangelical relief valve continue to "protect" America from the radical "isms" of the 20th century European experience?
Hard to predict -- as regulatory and judicial systems appear to be doing and "end-run" of this evangelical relief valve: The Regulatory Estate and Judicial circles are rife with social re-engineering ideologies -- big and small -- that masquerade under such "good sounding" and "politically correct" labels as "good for the environment" -- "protecting health" -- "promoting safety" -- "helping the poor" -- "for the children" -- etc.
And more and more -- each of these good sounding "intentions" are backed by police powers of the US Federal government -- and many state and local jurisdictions. As recent examples such as the Oregon baker's fine or the case of Kim Davis for failure to issue a marriage license have shown. These cases manifest a much larger trend of using the regulatory and judicial powers of the state to overcome any and all religious liberty -- and plug up the evangelical relief valve.
The open question becomes: Will the regulatory estate become the new theocracy in America? With regulators and judges as the new priesthood? Are we there, yet? Seems corruption and evils of the Ancien Régime -- so detested during the French Revolution -- are being rebuilt -- in America -- via the Regulatory plantation -- and yet to be defined estates of the realm.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Deadly Cultural Bias in Technical Decision Cycles
Another mental journey into “bet your life” Epistemology -- how we know, what we think we know. Or in this case -- how to act -- or not. There is a “cultural bias” coloring how pilots -- and sometimes regulators & BigGov actors -- bet your life in a decision cycle. A specific historical example below.
Setting, 2002 Europe: Überlingen mid-air collision over Germany between a DHL-611 cargo flight -- and a Russian Bashkirian Airlines Flight 2937 (BTC-2937). This collision is an excellent illustration of how culture plays into life-and-death decisions.
SHORT VERSION? Mixed cultural reactions in a decision cycle: (a) Folks from "open" societies tend to make "more local" decisions. (b) Folks from authoritarian or totalitarian societies tend to discount their local understanding in favor the "all knowing" authorities. When these two different cultural and social responses to decision cycle are mixed -- it can end very poorly.
VIDEO INTRO: For a well developed background and narrative unfolding of the event -- enjoy this 45 min YouTube video:
45 Min Video: Überlingen Mid-Air Collision
Analysis of Culture Bias upon Pilot Actions and the Bias Upon Situation Awareness:
Both the DHL-611 and BTC-2937 pilots had fully functional aircraft and instruments -- both had access to the same electronic collision avoidance “advice” from the onboard Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS).
Cockpit TCAS Panel Indicator (from Wikipedia)
Yet the BTC-2937 Russian pilots had been given conflicting instruction and “advice” from the human Air Traffic Control (ATC) -- a human with access to ground radar. In theory -- pilots in both aircraft -- had "Pilot in Command" discretion to over-ride the ATC erroneous call -- yet the erroneous ATC command was (unfortunately) directed at only the Russian pilot. And here is where a cultural bias afflicts -- and infects -- the “pilot in command” life & death decision cycle.
How so? First a little background to help understand how this cultural bias is inculcated and conditioned into pilot decision makers -- and “plays” against real life decisions.
Back in the mid-1990s -- this author had a USAF fighter pilot describe his experiences in the 1991 Iraq war. This gentleman shared a bit about how the Iraqi "command & control" (C&C) system was specifically knocked out -- early in the war -- to deprive the Iraqis of their ability to consult with -- and receive orders from -- the Iraqi central command. Why? Apparently -- at the US military academies -- the decision cycles -- and the field execution of "orders" -- are carefully studied by the officer corps.
More than just the USA command / execution decision cycle is studied -- but also the decision cycle of many potential adversaries and foreign governments -- the old Sun Tzu adage "Know thyself, know thy enemy."
The Iraqi military were inculcated and conditioned to respond only to the central command. Knocking out Iraqi communications effectively shutdown the Iraqi military's ability to respond. The local commanders were cut off -- and mentally "lost" -- without guidance from their central command.
For follow up, I asked if the US military had a similar C&C knock out vulnerability. My USAF fighter pilot had a surprise -- and detailed answer -- an answer that says much about HOW decision cycles are afflicted -- and infected -- with cultural bias. And how the local decision cycles can be made more robust by the human element -- guys "on the ground."
The USA military learned -- and apparently this lesson is propagated in the US military academies -- that "global planning, local execution" is key to a military campaign. This lesson was especially learned during the 1846-1848 Mexican-American war -- as field commanders were often weeks to months out of contact with the central authority.
1847: 2nd Battle of Tabasco (from Wikipedia)
From cursory historical research -- apparently beginning in 20th century -- the US Military began to collect lessons learned from "global planning, local execution" -- around the nomenclature of "Centralized Planning, Decentralised Execution" (CPDE).
This systemic decision orientation was formalized in the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act
For an interesting 2009 summary history -- by Lt. Colonel Hinote -- see "Centralized Control, Decentralized Execution - A Catchphrase in Crisis?"
In simple summary words -- the US military expects the US central planners & authority set the overall “big picture” goals -- and leave the local execution details to local commanders. These local commanders often have access to a more detailed and refined "Fingerspitzengefühl" -- a detailed "finger tip feel" for local situational awareness “picture.”
If the local commanders are “cut off” from their command & control -- they are trained to proceed on their own initiative and local situation understandings -- to effect the “big picture” goals. Apparently -- today in 2015 -- US Military policy tends to default to this “global planning, local execution” mode -- via training and propagation of the military sub-culture -- unless “over-ridden” by political micro-management.
On flip side, apparently the US Military actively takes advantage of many dictatorships and their “top down” government systems. Most of these have “grown up” with fair-to-excellent command & control technology and communications options -- and sometimes lack long term military academic history. These top-down military systems only “know” how to run their combat & war systems by removing local commander discretion and execution -- in favor of "wisdom" from the Jefe Máximo (big boss). Thus the emphasis -- in 1991 -- and possibly in other conflicts -- of the US military to knock out the C&C structure of adversaries.
Back to original topic: How does this “global planning, local execution” mental orientation play into the Überlingen mid-air collision?
Consider the Soviet top-down pilot & military training "atmosphere" -- say from 1918-1992. Please consider -- that in 2002 -- the Russian pilots were mid to late career. This was just 10 years after the break up of the USSR-Soviet Union. This means that much of the early training of the Russian pilots was inculcated and colored by the Soviet orientation -- a centralized, top-down command & control culture. In this top down culture -- a pilot would only career progress by demonstrating a strong proclivity to respond the orders from the central authority -- and pilots would not be trusted with expensive aircraft and significant Soviet state property -- if they failed to instantly respond to this central authority. In simple words, the 2002 pilot's unconscious mental bias was roughly: Central authority knows best for the mission, local details not so much.
TECHNICAL vs CULTURAL DECISION CONFLICT: The DHL-611 pilots responded correctly -- and as per training -- to the “descend” command from the onboard electronic Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS).
Panel Display: TCAS EU Flysafe (from Wikipedia)
However, the Russian BTC-2937 pilots had a cockpit decision conflict: The onboard TCAS system correctly commanded “climb” -- to avoid the DHL-611 aircraft -- yet the Russian pilots had been commanded by the human ATC controller to “descend” -- resulting in both aircraft descending into each other -- and mid-air collision.
For a few seconds -- the Russian pilots responded as per ATC instruction -- demonstrating their 1st training instinct and allegiance -- and desire -- to be responsive to the top down, central authority. As characterized in the video -- the Russian pilots were mentally torn and confused by the conflicting ATC vs TCAS collision avoidance commands. The odds are good these few seconds of delay was probably due to the Russian pilots training and cultural bias: Equipment could be ignored with less peril to career, life and liberty -- than ignoring the human command & control.
UPSHOT: For pilot decision makers -- under top down, centralized systems -- like the former Soviet USSR -- ignoring the human chain-of-command was heretical to past training and mental conditioning. This probably contributed much to the Überlingen mid-air collision. The odds are good that there are many other life and death decision cycles -- decision cycles that involve endangerment of people and expensive equipment -- from the size of aircraft -- to whole nation states -- that are colored by past and ongoing top-down training and cultural bias (think and compare with the nuclear Chernobyl Disaster ).
SUMMARY Quote by Steven R Covey -- "We see the world, not as it is -- but as we are" (or as we are conditioned to see the world). And "big" decision makers see the world "as they are" -- just like pilots.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Big Decision Makers Can Be Dead Wrong
The "Regulatory Mentality" and "Mastermind" orientation like to flatter themselves into believing that they know what is best for you and your situation. These regulators and masterminds often live in a world of bulk statistics and "big picture" numbers -- polls, census, economic trends, map databases and related measurements -- that give them apparent "god like" views of the regulated landscape.
Implicit in your interactions with the regulatory mastermind mentality: "What could you and your little perspective possible know? We see the big picture."
Unfortunately -- in the routine daily / monthly / yearly work-cycle of the regulatory estate -- all too often a "full loop" feedback is missing -- and is epistemologically and/or politically "broken."
Brokend Feedback Loop (modified from Wikipedia)
Big Mastermind Decision Makers are very rarely required to face the risk and consequences of their interpretations and "understanding" of the observed numbers -- and the effected regulatory takings and mandated regulatory "law" (regulations that have the effect and weight of statutory law -- until testing in court).
Big Decisions Makers are running "open loop" and not "closed loop" in the short term -- and -- also often in the long term -- for both feedback scope and effect. These masterminds rarely are required to "eat their own dog food" -- and live fat and happy off your taxes and fees -- and your "chasing-your-own-tail" efforts at "regulatory compliance."
PARALLEL EXAMPLE: Airlines -- and especially pilots -- must live and work in world of atmospheric environmental measurements and navigational observations -- and the quite literally "on the fly" real-time interpretations of the numbers -- can make the difference between life and death.
VIDEO: To help illustrate and see a "Real Life" example, where key decision makers bet their lives -- and the lives of others -- a video treat. This video explores the key questions: “What do we know – and how do we know it?” -- and "Oh, No! What now?"
Varig Boeing 737-241 (from Wikipedia)
BRAIN JOURNEY: When you have about a hour -- get a coffee or a beer -- sit down in front of the computer or big screen media center -- and watch this YouTube video: Varig Flight 254 -- and the air crash investigation circa 1989-1990. Please note how both pilots' blew a "simple" instrument setting -- and failed to use 2nd & 3rd verification navigational data. The pilots apparently so trusted the electronic in-flight navigational instruments -- they even ignored visual navigational evidence of the sun, the moon and the stars -- just out the window.
44 Min VIDEO: Varig Flight 254
SMARTER DECISION MAKER SHOPPING: Let your mind “float” with the video narrative -- as presented -- and ask yourself this question: “When should the key decision makers have known they were in trouble?”
Internally watch your how both your objective and subjective mind responds to the narrative and flow of facts.
Afterwards, please reflect on how million and billion dollar decision makers operate relative to this example. This is fun -- and astounding cross training compare for those engaged in "regulatory compliance." Just like pilots who set a simple compass number wrong -- so do regulators make "simple" yet fatal mistakes.
BACKGROUND: Why these air crash investigations? What relevance do they have to the regulatory compliance "process"? Three reasons:
(a) In high school and college, this author worked on fixed and roto wing aircraft for four years, picked up several wrecks -- a couple with fatalities -- and wondered why people did the dumb things with their lives and expensive equipment,
(b) Aircraft instruments are much like a scientific experiment -- providing repeatable measurements of the atmospheric environment -- and the navigational observational evidence external to the aircraft. Short of a triple instrument error -- and a complete "brain fart" breakdown in "seat-of-the-pants" mental monitoring and pilot's flight "Situation Awareness" (SitRep) -- the only wild card for understanding and correctly betting your life are the pilots' INTERPRETATIONS of the instrument readings,
(c) Back in the late 1990s -- both a key mentor scientist -- and an equipment sales rep -- introduced this author to the formal background of "Epistemology" -- how we know what we think we know. Or as the book title sez: "How we know what isn't so."
These air crash investigations are fast feedback, risk-consequence mini brain-processing laboratory “experiments” -- where “correct” and “whole cloth” SitRep interpretation of the instrument data results in a safe arrival -- and “incorrect” interpretations result in painful outcomes. A knife edge test and result missing from most “science” based hypothesis testing -- and regulatory / political wishful thinking.
OVER-RIDING REPTILIAN BRAIN FUNCTION: There is another Mayday-Air Crash investigation video -- that brings in an “extra” decision cycle biological factor: The highly biased data of the human reptilian brain complex -- and how the inner ear and vertigo information swirling & mixing in the brain -- dominates and overwhelms the mind's interpretation of the instrument data. A “ghost” in the organic “machinery” of the brain.
China Airlines 006 (from Wikipedia)
After you watch the above video -- search on YouTube for "China Air 006" and "panic over the pacific" -- and note how the reptilian brains of the pilots mix with the instrument data in a less than useful manner.
UPSHOT: Near real-time feedback is critical for "enforcing" good decision cycles. The Mayday-Air Crash Investigation video series -- and how pilots make life-and-death decisions via hard instrument observations -- and human brain SitRep interpretations -- illustrate a "full loop" risk-consequence decision cycle -- with real, short term harm and consequences. This "full loop" feedback is missing in the "regulatory compliance" working world. The Mastermind Decision Makers are not betting their lives and careers -- as are the pilots of aircraft. TAKE AWAY? To obtain a "better" and "more sane" regulatory landscape -- the goal of every "compliance" expert should be to close the loop -- and bring the consequences of Mastermind decisions and choices home -- and onto the heads of the Masterminds.
To quote from Shakepeare's Henry V -- "All things be ready if our minds be so."
Thursday, June 4, 2015
An Epistemological Long Shot
Nucleation of the Bubble
Starting a blog about the "atmosphere" and "ecology" of the regulatory estate & plantation -- via an Epistemology Long Shot may seem odd -- yet the relevance will manifest in many indirect and significant ways. In a bottle of beer or soda -- the bubbles nucleate (form) around odd imperfections
in the glass walls. Ditto for ideas and thoughts regarding the history and reach of the regulatory estate and plantation.
America was Innoculated Against Bolshevik Statism via Transplanted Nazis?
This is the long shot idea -- not original to me -- and 1st picked up in my reading from this odd yet epistemologically amazing 2003 book: The Hunt for Zero Point by Nick Cook.
In his book, Nick Cook speculates about the political / military / cultural influences upon America -- and the importation of ex-Nazis in 1945-47 time frame via Operation Paperclip.
Mr Cook's speculation got me thinking about recent American history: All these old Nazis have almost certainly died off -- and their direct policy and political influence has faded. And America's hard nosed approach to Socialism-Communism has faded dramatically -- in a similar time window. So much so -- now in 2015 -- that a man who directly and
repeated espouses Marxist-Leninist ideas has been elevated to the White House -- not once, but twice. Did American's immunity to top-down, Communist-Statism fade away?
To explore this notion -- and epistemological long shot -- please consider the following ideas -- extracted from mixed parts of history:
(a) In the 1770s to 1790s -- Jesty and Jenner developed what we now call the Cowpox vaccine to thwart the deadly Smallpox virus. Cowpox causes a much less dangerous infection -- and generates internal antibodies to Smallpox. Individuals inoculated by Cowpox suffer a small illness to be protected from the bigger illness of Smallpox.
Relative to the size of the whole human body -- transfer of Cowpox involves just a small injection of a few thousand cells. Yet this small injection has a HUGE effect for any later pandemic of Smallpox.
(b) After the 1st World War -- and before and during WW2 -- the German Nazis and the Communist Bolsheviks had a intense hate of each other. So much so they went to war and killed some 30 million of their citizens on both sides. Those of us from the outside of this conflict are mystified and confused -- especially since Nazism and Bolshevik-Stalinist Communism seem like two sides of the same coin -- namely top down, iron fisted BigGov Statism.
(c) According to the open literature for Operation Paperclip -- between 1500 and 2000 key Nazis with key technical / scientific / military skills were imported to America -- and many "floated" to the top of American technical policy and political decision cycles. A humorous example is illustrated
in the 1983 movie The Right Stuff -- where -- circa 1957-1959 -- Wernher von Braun is advising President Eisenhower -- with a thick accent that produces some fun dialog -- regarding what sort of man should be shot into space -- and beat the Russians -- the old enemies of the Nazis. From open history and common historical fiction like The Right Stuff -- it is clear that the most visible Nazis -- like von Braun -- where "right at the top" -- and probably a dozen others we will never know about.
(d) People with a common language / ethos / cultural history -- and imported into another nation -- will create a distinct Subculture -- and will network together like an old
school network of friends. In the movie The Right Stuff -- there is at least one scene -- which echos discussion in the 1979 book -- where the German rocket scientists are celebrating in the corner of a bar -- happily singing to themselves in German -- while the Americans unfold other celebratory mischief. Even with common, happy success, the sub-cultural difference remain.
UPSHOT? Just like the small Cowpox inoculation -- these remaining sub-cultural differences -- when expressed accidentally or coherently by 1500 to 2000 folks -- who floated to the top of the military-industrial complex -- *MAY* have *HAD* a powerful immunological effect on the whole complexion of post World-War-2 American society -- in this case, America's approach toward the Big Russian Bear.
Now -- with age and social Entropy -- the direct and indirect influence of old die-hard anti-communist Germans are now "out of the system" -- and like a faded vaccine -- America's ability to detect and thwart Communism -- both internally and externally -- has apparently softened. Wonder what new vaccine-of-values will be required to arrest a hot infection of top-down, iron fisted Statism? Time will tell.
Starting a blog about the "atmosphere" and "ecology" of the regulatory estate & plantation -- via an Epistemology Long Shot may seem odd -- yet the relevance will manifest in many indirect and significant ways. In a bottle of beer or soda -- the bubbles nucleate (form) around odd imperfections
Bubble Nucleation around a finger
(from the wikipedia)
in the glass walls. Ditto for ideas and thoughts regarding the history and reach of the regulatory estate and plantation.
America was Innoculated Against Bolshevik Statism via Transplanted Nazis?
This is the long shot idea -- not original to me -- and 1st picked up in my reading from this odd yet epistemologically amazing 2003 book: The Hunt for Zero Point by Nick Cook.
In his book, Nick Cook speculates about the political / military / cultural influences upon America -- and the importation of ex-Nazis in 1945-47 time frame via Operation Paperclip.
Mr Cook's speculation got me thinking about recent American history: All these old Nazis have almost certainly died off -- and their direct policy and political influence has faded. And America's hard nosed approach to Socialism-Communism has faded dramatically -- in a similar time window. So much so -- now in 2015 -- that a man who directly and
1917 vs 2012 from political
satire site The People Cube
repeated espouses Marxist-Leninist ideas has been elevated to the White House -- not once, but twice. Did American's immunity to top-down, Communist-Statism fade away?
To explore this notion -- and epistemological long shot -- please consider the following ideas -- extracted from mixed parts of history:
(a) In the 1770s to 1790s -- Jesty and Jenner developed what we now call the Cowpox vaccine to thwart the deadly Smallpox virus. Cowpox causes a much less dangerous infection -- and generates internal antibodies to Smallpox. Individuals inoculated by Cowpox suffer a small illness to be protected from the bigger illness of Smallpox.
Relative to the size of the whole human body -- transfer of Cowpox involves just a small injection of a few thousand cells. Yet this small injection has a HUGE effect for any later pandemic of Smallpox.
(b) After the 1st World War -- and before and during WW2 -- the German Nazis and the Communist Bolsheviks had a intense hate of each other. So much so they went to war and killed some 30 million of their citizens on both sides. Those of us from the outside of this conflict are mystified and confused -- especially since Nazism and Bolshevik-Stalinist Communism seem like two sides of the same coin -- namely top down, iron fisted BigGov Statism.
(c) According to the open literature for Operation Paperclip -- between 1500 and 2000 key Nazis with key technical / scientific / military skills were imported to America -- and many "floated" to the top of American technical policy and political decision cycles. A humorous example is illustrated
1983 Movie Poster
(from wikipedia)
in the 1983 movie The Right Stuff -- where -- circa 1957-1959 -- Wernher von Braun is advising President Eisenhower -- with a thick accent that produces some fun dialog -- regarding what sort of man should be shot into space -- and beat the Russians -- the old enemies of the Nazis. From open history and common historical fiction like The Right Stuff -- it is clear that the most visible Nazis -- like von Braun -- where "right at the top" -- and probably a dozen others we will never know about.
(d) People with a common language / ethos / cultural history -- and imported into another nation -- will create a distinct Subculture -- and will network together like an old
A group of 104 rocket scientists
at Fort Bliss, Texas
(from wikipedia)
school network of friends. In the movie The Right Stuff -- there is at least one scene -- which echos discussion in the 1979 book -- where the German rocket scientists are celebrating in the corner of a bar -- happily singing to themselves in German -- while the Americans unfold other celebratory mischief. Even with common, happy success, the sub-cultural difference remain.
UPSHOT? Just like the small Cowpox inoculation -- these remaining sub-cultural differences -- when expressed accidentally or coherently by 1500 to 2000 folks -- who floated to the top of the military-industrial complex -- *MAY* have *HAD* a powerful immunological effect on the whole complexion of post World-War-2 American society -- in this case, America's approach toward the Big Russian Bear.
Now -- with age and social Entropy -- the direct and indirect influence of old die-hard anti-communist Germans are now "out of the system" -- and like a faded vaccine -- America's ability to detect and thwart Communism -- both internally and externally -- has apparently softened. Wonder what new vaccine-of-values will be required to arrest a hot infection of top-down, iron fisted Statism? Time will tell.
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